It's that time of year when we are bombarded with Top 10 lists, who died lists and predictions for the upcoming year. Since we didn't want to be left out of all of this fun, here is our list of predictions for the homebuilding industry in 2010.- The extension of the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit (and the new $6,500 tax credit) will get extended again. However, this time, the amount of the credit will be reduced and eventually phased out when the housing market really recovers in 2011.
- Speaking of the housing market recovering, we don't see a real recovery happening until 2011. However, we do see some improvement in 2010.
- Both finished lots and raw, entitled land is beginning to sell at much reduced prices and this will continue throughout 2010. Units on these lots will begin to hit the market by mid-2010 with much lower sales prices. These low base prices, coupled with the tax credits and low interest rates will continue to drive the new home market throughout the next year.
- Some municipalities will "adjust" their impact and building permit fees in order to jump start homebuilding in their communities. However, incredibly, most cities and villages will maintain their status quo with fees stating that their budgets are built around builders and developers paying "their fair share."
- Fundamentals will be the key. Great location, great product design and great value have always been the keys to a successful project, that is until the mid-2000's, when just about everything sold. Fundamentals are back.... in a big way.
- The buzzword for 2010 is stability. The job market will eventually stabilize, the housing market will stabilize and the national economy will stabilize. Remember, we need to stabilize before we can grow. 2011 will be the year of growth.
We hope everyone has a happy new year and a successful 2010!
