Baby Steps

The Illinois Association of Realtors released their existing home sales and median price numbers this morning and to quote former Arizona Cardinal Coach Dennis Green "they are what we thought they were." We did expect sales to increase moderately this month, and they did. We did not expect them to exceed last year's numbers, and they didn't. Most importantly, sales continued in the proper direction. Sales historically increase incrementally through July and then begin to tail off a bit. This is because the months of March, April and May are typically are the busiest for realtors. The units that they sell don't actually close until May, June and July, which are the numbers reported by the Illinois Realtors Association. So, given the seasonality of the local housing market and the increased level of activity reported by realtors during the past couple of months, we anticipate that sales will continue to increase in June and July, before tailing off a little in August. Why is this significant? Because this is the normal sales pattern in Chicago (and most other markets across the country).

At this stage of our housing recovery, a little normalcy is a good thing even if the volume isn't quite what we want to see. Next year during the sales season, we will see the same pattern, with a little more volume. And the same will hold true for 2011. Before we know it, the housing market will begin to feel a lot more "normal."