I must admit, I wasn't familiar with the term "Green Shoots" until Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the term in a 60 Minutes interview in Mid-March. I now find myself searching for "green shoots" of economic recovery every day, after all, our industry depends on it. I found this quote on CNBC.com on April 30th "among the reasons for optimism: a significant easing of the credit crunch, improvement in consumer spending, a potential bottom in housing, a less-grim jobs picture and expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth sooner than later". As I re-read this quote, I realized that there are too many "ifs" and "maybes" to really be considered tell tale signs that the economy is turning the corner. So I continued my search for "green shoots'. Today, the government announced that construction spending rose 0.3 percent in March, versus analysts expectations of a 1.5 percent decrease. I think this qualifies as a very small green shoot. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that the National Association of Realtors announced today that pending home sales increased 3.2 percent in March. This usually means that actual home sales will increase in both April and May, which is indeed a green shoot.
We will continue our daily search for green shoots and report them here as we find them. Perhaps, sometime in the near future, we will have an entire field of "green shoots."
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